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Brian Berber
Jun 07, 2023
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Brian Berber
Jun 07, 2023
In Education Forum
Cabal Online Stats Calculator
This stats dive was prompted by the last column I wrote, where I examined Vedalken Orrery. Over the course of goldfishing a hundred or so hands with random decks online, I noticed that I was unable to hit four colorless mana by turn four way more often than I would have thought, and by and large this seemed to be due to a dearth of both lands and mana rocks in the decks I was testing. How to find out for sure though?
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Brian Berber
Jun 07, 2023
In Education Forum
Saawariya full movie in hindi download hd 1080p
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Brian Berber
Jun 02, 2023
In Education Forum
difference between risk and uncertainty pdf download
In our day to day life, there are many circumstances, where we have to take risks, which involves exposure to lose or danger. Risk can be understood as the potential of loss. It is not exactly same as uncertainty, which implies the absence of certainty of the outcome in a particular situation. There are instances, wherein uncertainty is inherent, with respect to the forthcoming events, i.e. there is no idea, of what can happen next.
We use the terms risk and uncertainty in a single breath, but have you ever wondered about their difference. Well, this article might help you in understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty, take a read.
In the financial glossary, the meaning of risk is not much different. It implies the uncertainty regarding the expected returns on the investments made i.e. the probability of actual returns may not be equal to the expected returns. Such a risk may include the probability of losing the part or whole investment. Although the higher the risk, the higher is the expectation of returns, because investors are paid off for the additional risk they take on their investments. The major elements of risk are defined as below:
The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty features both theoretical and empirical papers that analyze risk-bearing behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. The journal serves as an outlet for important, relevant research in decision analysis, economics, and psychology.
Among the topics covered in the journal are decision theory and the economics of uncertainty, psychological models of choice under uncertainty, risk and public policy, experimental investigations of behavior under uncertainty, and empirical studies of real-world, risk-taking behavior. Articles begin with an introductory discussion explaining the nature of the research and the interpretation and implications of the findings at a level that is accessible to researchers in other disciplines.
Companies forge partnerships for many reasons, and partnerships are becoming a cornerstone of many business models. Companies create alliances to optimize their business models, reduce risk, or acquire resources. We can distinguish between four different types of partnerships, which are strategic alliances between non-competitors, coopetition: strategic partnerships between competitors, joint ventures to develop new businesses, and buyer-supplier relationships to assure reliable supplies.
In this article, the concepts of risk and uncertainty will be introduced together with the use of probabilities in calculating both expected values and measures of dispersion. In addition, the attitude to risk of the decision-maker will be examined by considering various decision-making criteria, and the usefulness of decision trees will also be discussed.
The basic definition of risk is that the final outcome of a decision, such as an investment, may differ from that which was expected when the decision was taken. We tend to distinguish between risk and uncertainty in terms of the availability of probabilities. Risk is when the probabilities of the possible outcomes are known (such as when tossing a coin or throwing a dice); uncertainty is where the randomness of outcomes cannot be expressed in terms of specific probabilities. However, it has been suggested that in the real world, it is generally not possible to allocate probabilities to potential outcomes, and therefore the concept of risk is largely redundant. In the artificial scenarios of exam questions, potential outcomes and probabilities will generally be provided, therefore a knowledge of the basic concepts of probability and their use will be expected.
Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.
The ability of humans to learn changing reward contingencies implies that they perceive, at a minimum, three levels of uncertainty: risk, which reflects imperfect foresight even after everything is learned; (parameter) estimation uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty about outcome probabilities; and unexpected uncertainty, or sudden changes in the probabilities. We describe how these levels of uncertainty evolve in a natural sampling task in which human choices reliably reflect optimal (Bayesian) learning, and how their evolution changes the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty. The ability to sense estimation uncertainty (also known as ambiguity) is a virtue because, besides allowing one to learn optimally, it may guide more effective exploration; but aversion to estimation uncertainty may be maladaptive. Here, we show that participant choices reflected aversion to estimation uncertainty. We discuss how past imaging studies foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish the different notions of uncertainty. Also, we document that the ability of participants to do such distinction relies on sufficient revelation of the payoff-generating model. When we induced structural uncertainty, participants did not gain awareness of the jumps in our task, and fell back to model-free reinforcement learning.
To correctly gauge estimation uncertainty, two additional statistical properties of the environment ought to be evaluated: risk, or how much irreducible uncertainty would be left even after the best of learning; and unexpected uncertainty, or how likely it is that the environment suddenly changes [5]. The notion of risk captures the idea that, to a certain extent, forecast errors are expected, and therefore should not affect learning. Under unexpected uncertainty, these same forecast errors are indications that learning may have to be re-started because outcome contingencies have changed discretely.
With Bayesian learning, the three notions of uncertainty are tracked explicitly. This is because Bayesians form a model of the environment that delineates the boundaries of risk, estimation uncertainty and unexpected uncertainty. The delineation is crucial: estimation uncertainty tells Bayesians how much still needs to be learned, while unexpected uncertainty leads them to forget part of what they learned in the past.
This contrasts with model-free reinforcement learning. There, uncertainty is monolithic: it is the expected magnitude of the prediction error [6]. Under reinforcement learning, only the value of a chosen option is updated, on the basis of the reward (or loss) prediction error, i.e., the difference between the received and the anticipated reward (or loss) [7]. No attempt is made to disentangle the different sources of the prediction error. Usually, the learning rate is kept constant. If not, as in the Pearce-Hall algorithm [8], adjustment is based on the total size of the prediction error.
Recently, evidence has emerged that, in environments where risk, estimation uncertainty and unexpected uncertainty all vary simultaneously, humans choose as if they were Bayesians [9]. Formally, the experiment that generated this evidence involved a six-arm restless bandit problem. Participants were asked to choose among six options with different risk profiles and differing frequencies of changes in reward (and loss) probabilities. Assuming softmax exploration [10], the Bayesian updating model was shown to provide a significantly improved fit over standard reinforcement learning as well as the Pearce-Hall extension.
To discover that humans are Bayesians implies that they must have tracked the three levels of uncertainty. Here, we discuss how the levels differentially affected the Bayesian learning rate in our restless bandit task, and how participants could have distinguished between them.
Neural implementation of Bayesian learning would require separate encoding of the three levels of uncertainty. Recent human imaging studies appear to be consistent with this view. The evidence has only been suggestive, however, as no imaging study to date involved independent control of risk, estimation uncertainty and unexpected uncertainty.
The task in [4] involved a bandit with only two arms, however. For our purposes, this entails a number of disadvantages. First, it is impossible to independently track the three levels of uncertainty with only two arms; at a minimum, six arms are needed, and this is what is implemented in the experiment here. As a matter of fact, in [4], risk was decreased along with unexpected uncertainty, introducing a confound that masked the full effect of unexpected uncertainty on the learning rate. Second, the two arms in [4] have perfectly negatively correlated reward probabilities, and as such, the task is one of reversal learning [17]. This means that outcomes for one arm are fully informative for the other one. Consequently, exploration is of no consequence.
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Brian Berber
Jun 01, 2023
In Education Forum
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Brian Berber
May 30, 2023
In Education Forum
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Brian Berber
May 27, 2023
In Education Forum
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Brian Berber
May 26, 2023
In Education Forum
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Brian Berber
May 21, 2023
In Education Forum
Construct 2 License File: What You Need to Know Before Buying Construct 2 is a powerful and easy-to-use game development tool that lets you create games for various platforms without coding. However, if you want to use Construct 2 to its full potential, you need to purchase a license file that removes the limitations of the free edition and allows you to use all the features and exporters of the software. Construct 2 License File DOWNLOAD: https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fshurll.com%2F2tNrby&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AOvVaw1RWu0XxdgKaSS-px3Po1Yy In this article, we will explain what a Construct 2 license file is, how to get one, and what are the benefits of having one. We will also answer some frequently asked questions about Construct 2 licenses. What is a Construct 2 License File? A Construct 2 license file is a small text file that contains your name, email address, and a unique code that identifies your license. The license file is named c2license.txt and it is sent to you by email after you purchase a license from Scirra.com or from Steam. The license file is what unlocks all the features and exporters of Construct 2 that are not available in the free edition. The free edition has the following limitations: A maximum of 100 events in a project A maximum of 4 layers on any layout A maximum of 2 effects in a project No organizing the project with subfolders No event search No Configurations bar No Families No access to Preview on LAN Not allowed to be used for commercial purposes (however, it can be used in education and other non-profit organizations) Several exporters, e.g. for mobile or desktop publishing, are unavailable With a license file, you can use all Construct 2's features and make games as large as you like. You also get extra sound effects, music and sprite packs to help you get started making games. How to Get a Construct 2 License File? There are two ways to get a Construct 2 license file: buying directly from Scirra.com or buying from Steam. If you buy directly from Scirra.com, you will be sent a redeem key by email. This is a special code that you can enter to the Scirra Store and get your license file. You can also give the redeem key to someone else if you want to buy a license for them. For example, if you want to buy licenses for your employees or colleagues, you can receive a number of redeem keys and then give them to each individual. If you buy from Steam, then Steam will manage the license for you. You don't need to download or install anything else. Just install Steam, log in and download Construct 2 from your library. The license will be automatically applied when you run Construct 2. What are the Benefits of Having a Construct 2 License File? Having a Construct 2 license file has many benefits, such as: You can use all Construct 2's features and make games as large as you like. You can export your games to various platforms, such as HTML5, Android, iOS, Windows, Mac, Linux, Xbox One, PlayStation 4, Nintendo Switch, and more. You can use your license on as many computers as you like, as long as you are the only one who uses it (see Using Your License below). You can use your license for commercial purposes, up to a revenue limit of $5000 for individuals or unlimited for businesses (see License Types below). You can get free updates to the Construct 2 editor for life. You can get support from Scirra and the community. License Types There are two types of licenses for Construct 2: Personal and Business. Here's how they differ: Personal License A Personal license is suitable for individuals and not-for-profit organizations (like schools, libraries and universities). It removes all the free edition limits and allows you to use all Construct 2's features and exporters. If you are an individual, you can also use a Personal license for commercial purposes, up to a revenue limit of $5000. That means if you're an indie dev, you can make up to $5000 revenue from using Construct 2 (for example, by selling games or supporting them with adverts) before you need to get a Business license. Hopefully once you've made $5000 the Business license is easily affordable! Not-for-profit organizations can use Personal licenses to remove the free edition limits and use Construct 2 for educational or non-commercial purposes. Bulk discounts are available for buying multiple licenses. Business License A Business license is required for individuals who have already made over $5000 from revenue associated with Construct 2 creations, and for commercial organizations like businesses. It removes all the free edition limits and allows you to use all Construct 2's features and exporters. A Business license also allows you to use Construct 2 for any commercial purpose, without any revenue limit. You can sell your games or support them with adverts as much as you like. Commercial organizations must purchase one Business license per user of Construct 2. For example, if you have five employees who use Construct 2, you need to buy five Business licenses. Using Your License Once you have your license file, you need to install it to your copy of Construct 2. Here's how: Download and install Construct 2 from the download page. Copy your c2license.txt file to the same folder where Construct 2 is installed. By default this is C:\\Program Files\\Construct 2\\ on Windows. Run Construct 2. It should detect your license file and show your name and email address on the About dialog. If you have any problems installing your license file, please refer to the troubleshooting guide. You can use your license on as many computers as you like, as long as you are the only one who uses it. For example, you can install it on your home computer and your laptop. However, you must not let anyone else use your license file or share it with anyone else. This is a violation of the license agreement and may result in your license being revoked. Troubleshooting Your License Sometimes you may encounter some issues with your license file, such as: Construct 2 does not recognize your license file and still runs as the free edition. You have lost or deleted your license file and need to download it again. You have changed your name or email address and need to update your license file. You have received a message that your license file has been revoked or suspended. Here are some possible solutions for these problems: Construct 2 Does Not Recognize Your License File If Construct 2 does not detect your license file and still runs as the free edition, you should check the following: Make sure you have copied your c2license.txt file to the same folder where Construct 2 is installed. By default this is C:\\Program Files\\Construct 2\\ on Windows. Make sure you have restarted Construct 2 after copying your license file. Make sure you have the latest version of Construct 2. You can download it from the download page. Make sure your license file is not corrupted or modified. You can check the integrity of your license file by opening it with a text editor and comparing it with the one you downloaded from the Scirra Store. You Have Lost or Deleted Your License File If you have lost or deleted your license file and need to download it again, you can do so by following these steps: Log in to the Scirra Store with the same account you used to purchase your license. Go to My Purchases and find your Construct 2 purchase. Click on Download License File and save it to your computer. Copy your c2license.txt file to the same folder where Construct 2 is installed. By default this is C:\\Program Files\\Construct 2\\ on Windows. Restart Construct 2 and it should find your license file. You Have Changed Your Name or Email Address If you have changed your name or email address and need to update your license file, you can do so by following these steps: Log in to the Scirra Store with the same account you used to purchase your license. Go to My Account and edit your name or email address as needed. Go to My Purchases and find your Construct 2 purchase. Click on Download License File and save it to your computer. Delete your old c2license.txt file from the folder where Construct 2 is installed. By default this is C:\\Program Files\\Construct 2\\ on Windows. Copy your new c2license.txt file to the same folder where Construct 2 is installed. Restart Construct 2 and it should find your new license file. Your License File Has Been Revoked or Suspended If you have received a message that your license file has been revoked or suspended, it means that you have violated the license agreement or that there has been a problem with your payment. You should contact Scirra support as soon as possible to resolve the issue. You can contact them by email at support@scirra.com or by using the contact form on their website. Conclusion Construct 2 is a great tool for making games without coding, but you need a license file to use it to its full potential. A license file removes the limitations of the free edition and allows you to use all the features and exporters of Construct 2. You can also use your license for commercial purposes, up to a certain revenue limit. There are two types of licenses for Construct 2: Personal and Business. A Personal license is suitable for individuals and not-for-profit organizations, while a Business license is required for individuals who have made over $5000 from Construct 2 creations and for commercial organizations. You can buy a license directly from Scirra.com or from Steam. Once you have your license file, you need to copy it to the same folder where Construct 2 is installed and restart Construct 2. You can use your license on as many computers as you like, as long as you are the only one who uses it. If you have any problems with your license file, you can troubleshoot them by following the steps in this article or by contacting Scirra support. We hope this article has helped you understand what a Construct 2 license file is, how to get one, and what are the benefits of having one. If you have any questions or feedback, feel free to leave a comment below. Happy game making! Conclusion Construct 2 is a great tool for making games without coding, but you need a license file to use it to its full potential. A license file removes the limitations of the free edition and allows you to use all the features and exporters of Construct 2. You can also use your license for commercial purposes, up to a certain revenue limit. There are two types of licenses for Construct 2: Personal and Business. A Personal license is suitable for individuals and not-for-profit organizations, while a Business license is required for individuals who have made over $5000 from Construct 2 creations and for commercial organizations. You can buy a license directly from Scirra.com or from Steam. Once you have your license file, you need to copy it to the same folder where Construct 2 is installed and restart Construct 2. You can use your license on as many computers as you like, as long as you are the only one who uses it. If you have any problems with your license file, you can troubleshoot them by following the steps in this article or by contacting Scirra support. We hope this article has helped you understand what a Construct 2 license file is, how to get one, and what are the benefits of having one. If you have any questions or feedback, feel free to leave a comment below. Happy game making! d282676c82 https://www.lifeisgreendiet.com/group/lifeisgreendiet-group/discussion/158c0067-77ef-4d05-8bd5-f23bbfc8fc1f https://www.wupher.com/group/mysite-group/discussion/2963a3f5-0595-4400-a946-cd71ae8abce5 https://www.appatdugrain.com/group/tga-developpement/discussion/040b1dcd-b9f9-411a-a1b1-3eb49ea913b8 https://www.requestnetworks.com/group/mysite-200-group/discussion/e870172b-2df3-408b-b93e-516de67eb5d0 https://www.appadokids.com/forum/holiday-seasonal/circuit-wizard-1-15-full-crack-exclusive
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Brian Berber
May 21, 2023
In Education Forum
How to Download and Install Pro Tools for Free on Windows 10 If you are a music producer, a musician, or a sound engineer, you might have heard of Pro Tools. Pro Tools is one of the most popular and powerful music production software in the world. It allows you to record, edit, mix, and master audio tracks with professional quality and speed. Pro Tools Free Download Windows 10 Download File: https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftiurll.com%2F2tMVM4&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AOvVaw0htFtatw83aDs2c5tM30hs However, there is a catch. Pro Tools is not a cheap software. You need to pay a monthly or annual subscription fee to use it. The price ranges from $29.99 to $79.99 per month or from $299 to $799 per year depending on the plan you choose. If you don't want to spend that much money on a music production software, you might be wondering if there is a way to download and install Pro Tools for free on Windows 10. The answer is yes. In this article, we will show you how to download and install Pro Tools for free on Windows 10 and enjoy its amazing features without paying a dime. Follow the steps below and you will be able to create professional music in no time. Step 1: Download Pro Tools First The first step is to download Pro Tools First from its official website. You can find the download link here: https://www.avid.com/pro-tools-first. Pro Tools First is a free version of Pro Tools that offers some of its basic features and functions. It is designed for beginners and hobbyists who want to learn and practice music production. Once you click on the download link, you will be asked to create an Avid account or sign in with your existing one. You need an Avid account to activate and use Pro Tools First. If you don't have one, you can create one for free by filling out the registration form. After you create or sign in to your Avid account, you will be redirected to the download page where you can choose the version of Pro Tools First that matches your operating system (Windows or Mac). Click on the download button and save the file on your computer. Step 2: Install Pro Tools First The next step is to install Pro Tools First on your computer. To do this, run the installer file that you downloaded in the previous step and follow the instructions on the screen. You don't need to enter any license key or activation code during the installation process. Just click on the \"Next\" button until the installation is finished. Once the installation is complete, launch Pro Tools First from your desktop or start menu and sign in with your Avid account. You will be asked to choose a cloud storage location for your projects and sessions. You can choose any of the available options or create your own. Step 3: Enjoy Pro Tools First for Free Congratulations! You have successfully downloaded and installed Pro Tools First for free on Windows 10. Now you can start creating music with Pro Tools First and enjoy its features and functions. Some of the features and functions that you can use with Pro Tools First are: Record up to 16 audio tracks with up to 24-bit/96 kHz resolution Edit audio clips with tools such as trim, fade, cut, copy, paste, etc. Mix audio tracks with up to 16 inputs and outputs Add effects and plugins to enhance your sound Use virtual instruments and loops to create melodies and beats Export your projects and sessions as WAV or MP3 files However, there are some limitations and restrictions that you should be aware of when using Pro Tools First. Some of them are: You can only create up to three projects and store them in the cloud You cannot save your projects locally on your computer You cannot open or import projects created with other versions of Pro Tools You cannot use third-party plugins or hardware interfaces You have limited access to some of the advanced features and functions of Pro Tools If you want to unlock more features and functions of Pro Tools, you need to upgrade to a paid subscription plan or buy a perpetual license. You can find more information about the pricing and options here: https://www.avid.com/pro-tools/pricing. Conclusion Pro Tools is one of the most popular and powerful music production software in the world. It allows you to record, edit, mix, and master audio tracks with professional quality and speed. However, it is not a cheap software and you need to pay a monthly or annual subscription fee to use it. If you don't want to spend that much money on a music production software, you can download and install Pro Tools First for free on Windows 10. Pro Tools First is a free version of Pro Tools that offers some of its basic features and functions. It is designed for beginners and hobbyists who want to learn and practice music production. We hope this article was helpful and informative. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave them below. 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